Baseline Supply and Demand Analysis with Consumer Perspective: A Holistic Framework for Forecasting Future Tourism Demand and the Supply-Side Requirements for Timor-Leste is the final report of a World Bank technical-assistance assignment requested by the Government of Timor-Leste, dated August 2021. It is one of the most complete single sources on the sector. It inventories attractions and services, profiles source markets, tests consumer perceptions in Australia, Singapore and the UK, and ends with a SWOT analysis and investment priorities. A Tetum edition, Analize Linha-Baze ba Oferta no Demanda ho Prespetiva Konsumidor nian, was also published.
Key contents
- Supply analysis: tourism assets, segments, products and sites, information access, destination positioning and competitiveness, accommodation, tour operators, and air, land and marine transport.
- Destination clusters: emerging destinations in the north-west (Dili, Liquiçá, Atauro), nascent ones in the centre and west (Maubisse, Hatubuilico, Mount Ramelau, Balibo), and new ones in the east (Baucau, Mount Matebian, Tutuala, Jaco Island).
- Government 2030 goals cited: US$150 million in international tourism revenue, 15,000 jobs, and 200,000 international visits a year by 2030, against 55,000 in 2014.
- Demand analysis: global outbound tourism before COVID-19 and the pandemic’s impact, trip types (business, visiting friends and relatives, holiday), and profiles of ten source markets: Australia, Singapore, UK, New Zealand, Germany, France, USA, China, Japan and Indonesia.
- Consumer research: 8 in-depth interviews, 12 focus groups and 19 stakeholder interviews. The findings feed a Bayesian Network model of how perceptions (for example, air access) affect satisfaction and likelihood to visit. Australia, Singapore and the UK serve as proxies for nearby, Asian short-break and long-haul European markets. Six segments were tested: scuba diving, snorkelling and water tourism, adventure, whale and dolphin watching, rest and relaxation, and sightseeing.
- Main conclusions: Low awareness of Timor-Leste is the first barrier in every market, together with perceptions linked to past conflict. The “untouched” character should be communicated and protected. Whale and dolphin watching could be a major draw, and Singaporean respondents were notably interested.
- Opportunities: fix coordination failures between the public and private sectors, improve local and international connectivity, promote the destination to create demand for private investment, and build basic tourism facilities.
- Annexes: tourism statistics for key source markets and the assignment’s terms of reference.
Language versions
- English: Baseline Supply and Demand Analysis with Consumer Perspective (176 pages)
- Tetum: Analize Linha-Baze ba Oferta no Demanda ho Prespetiva Konsumidor nian (193 pages)
Document details
- Publisher: World Bank Group, at the request of the Government of Timor-Leste
- Date: August 2021 (final report)
- Languages: English, Tetum
- Pages: 176 (English)
- Download (English): PDF (timorleste.tl)
- Download (Tetum): PDF (timorleste.tl)